Monday, January 28, 2008


Here is an interesting news item regarding Israel's analysis of Iran's nuclear capability:
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said, in an interview published Saturday, that Iran is "quite advanced" in its work on atomic weapons and may already be fashioning a nuclear warhead.

"We suspect they are probably already working on warheads for ground-to-ground missiles," Barak said in an interview with The Washington Post and Newsweek magazine.

He also suggested that Iranians "probably ... have another clandestine enrichment operation beyond the one in Natanz."

The remarks were in stark contrast the conclusion of a US National Intelligence Estimate released late last year that said Tehran had abandoned its quest for nuclear weapons as far back as 2003.

Barak sharply disagreed with this assessment.

"Our interpretation is that clearly the Iranians are aiming at nuclear capability," he said. "It's probably true that ... they may have slowed down the weapons group in 2003, because it was the height of American militarism."

But he said Israel now believed that Iranians "are quite advanced, much beyond the level of the Manhattan Project."

Call it the Tehran Project, if you will. And, doesn't this suggest that the Iranians have got all their religious ducks in a row to actually use nuclear weapons they already possess or anticipate possessing? NIE to the contrary.

That psychological interpretation dovetails with the arrogant, smirking demeanor that always accompanys the calculated baiting of the West by Ahmadinejad, the Iranian Psychopath-in-chief. Whether it is making suggestive remarks about the state of Israel and its future; or sending speedboats to harass American ships in the strait of Hormuz, Ahmadinejad always tries to appear to be a beacon of reason and nuanced diplomacy.

He reminds me a lot of many of the paranoid patients I have dealt with over the years.

All the behavior and rhetoric of the past year strongly suggest that the Iranians already have a nuclear weapons capability, or soon will; and that they certainly intend to use it at a moment of their own choosing.

Of course, they would want that moment to be a grand, heroic, Islamic gesture. They would need such a gesture to maximize their sense of Arab honor while simultaneously shaming their hated enemy, the Jews. They would need for the gesture to come at exactly at the moment when they can most appear to be the enlightened purveyors of "peace" and "brotherhood".

The hapless intellectual leaders of the West will continue to bend over backwards and even engage in desperate contortions to appease and mollify the sociopathic bullies of Islam; but that will only escalate their violent behavior and give them the rationale they need to press on, more self-righteously convinced that they are superior. This is the completely predictable psychological response to appeasement, solicitation, and compassionate understanding. It's simple really. Bullies will always push the envelope of bad behavior when they think they can get away with it.

And they are getting away with it, aren't they? Just check out the sense of relief and jubilation with which the recent NIE was received by almost everyone. Whew! We don't have to worry about Iran any more! Isn't that great?

But this is simply the transient sense of safety and security that psychological denial can bring. No rational person wants to believe that Iran could be so crazy and suicidal that they would really try to "wipe Israel off the map." The NIE was tremendously reassuring because it suggested that the religious fanatics of Iran are really motivated by rational considerations, just like us!

Well, yes. To a point. They clearly don't want something to happen that would interrupt or put a premature end to achieving their ultimate goal. And logically, rationally, they will do whatever they need to make sure of that.

Don't forget that reason and logic can--and frequently are--used to promote the most illogical, irrational and insane of objectives. In the end, reason and logic are only intellectual tools and their usefulness depends entirely on the reality and truth of the premises for which they are being used. If the premises or objectives for which they are being used are bogus; or if they are not what you think they are; or the opposite of what your own would be under the circumstances; then it hardly matters that the Mullahs and Ahmadinejad give the appearance of being reasonable fellows negotiating rationally with the West.

I can easily imagine Ahmadinejad rubbing his hands together like The Simpson's Mr. Burns, cackling, "Exxxxcellent!" as they promise one thing even as they do the opposite--which logically and rationally proves to them the superiority of Islam and the inevitability of Allah's will.

It's no use saying that by pursuing the development of a nuclear warhead they would use against Israel doesn't make any sense and would be completely irrational, not to mention downright suicidal.

They have repeatedly stated they think it would be worth the human price.

Just think of Ahmadinejad as the ultimate, high-tech suicide bomber who has wrapped that nuclear bomb belt securely around his entire country.

I have said before that I hope I am wrong in this assessment, but all my psychiatric instincts continue to tell me that this is a situation where we are facing imminent suicidal and homicidal behavior. And, the lives of millions are in the balance....

No comments: