Friday, December 17, 2004

Because They Are Losing

Glenn Reynolds makes an important point in this post:


One year ago, Al Qaeda believed they should work against the United States,
rather than working to destabilize the Arab regimes. One year ago, Al Qaeda was
focusing outward, rather than inward. One year ago, Al Qaeda believed in
coexistence with the House of Saud.
One year ago, Al Qaeda believed the Caliphate could best be established by detente with the House of Saud, and War against the United States. Today, Al Qaeda seeks detente with the US, and war against the House of Saud.
That's because they're losing.

You may have noticed that Bin Laden and his minions have not been able to touch the homeland U.S. since 9/11. He has had to settle for softer targets. The U.S. has not captured him, but he has been kept on the run and risks capture with every move. He can pretend that the U.S. is his main target, but the truth is that he has been forced by U.S. actions to change both his overall strategy as well as his specific tactics. He must now focus on a growing fissure within Islam itself; and deal with the tide of freedom and democracy that is overtaking the Middle East. From his perspective, this tide has been not only unwelcome, but wholly unexpected in the 3 short years since 9/11. Who could have predicted that his carefully crafted safe haven in Afghanistan under the malicious Taliban would be wiped from the earth to be replaced by a democratically- elected government of the people.

If Bin Laden is as religiously fanatical as he postures, then he must conclude that it is all Allah's will. And he must be wondering if Allah, in his infinite mercy, has decided that Life is better than Death; Freedom better than Enslavement; and that maybe he, Bin Laden himself, has been judged and found superfluous to the future of the world. Inshallah, indeed.

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