Ira Strauss comments on the latest October Surprise:
It’s from Iran again, an October move that could throw the election, and this time it’s for real. Iran is near to agreeing to hold direct nuclear talks with the U.S. It throws a big bone to Obama, on the eve of his final foreign-policy debate with Romney.
Plainly, it does not want to face a Romney presidency.
It’s not something dreamed up after the fact, as in the 1980s “October Surprise.” This time around, the story comes from the parties that stand to benefit from it, and it’s out there in real time — indeed, with exquisite campaign timing.
And, guess what! Israel is out of the loop! Just Us and the Iranians, all cozying up for yet another little chat.
Obviously, both the Mullahs of Iran and President Obama think the American public is pretty stupid. And they may well be right.
I've said it before on this blog, and I'll say it again: the Iranians have got all their religious ducks in a row to actually use nuclear weapons they likely already possess or anticipate possessing (remember Pakistan?).
That is my psychological interpretation and it dovetails with the arrogant, smirking demeanor that always accompanys the calculated baiting of the West by Ahmadinejad, the Iranian Psychopath-in-Chief. Just last month, that same psychopath made his apocalyptic intentions crystal clear to the world.
Whether it is making suggestive remarks about the state of Israel and its future demise; or speculating on the 12th IMAM who will usher in a New World Order (no wonder he wants Obama to win the Presidency!), Ahmadinejad always tries to appear to be a beacon of reason and nuanced diplomacy.
He reminds me a lot of many of the paranoid patients I have dealt with over the years.
All the behavior and rhetoric of the past five years strongly suggest that the Iranians will certainly use their nuclear weapons capability at a moment of their own choosing--negotiations and diplomacy be damned.
Of course, they would want that moment to be a grand, heroic, Islamic gesture. They would need such a gesture to maximize their sense of Arab honor while simultaneously shaming their hated enemy, the Jews. They would need for the gesture to come at exactly at the moment when they can most appear to be the enlightened purveyors of "peace" and "brotherhood".
The hapless intellectual leaders of the West will continue to bend over backwards and even engage in desperate contortions to appease and mollify the sociopathic bullies of Islam; but that will only escalate their violent behavior and give them the rationale they need to press on, more self-righteously convinced that they are superior. This is the completely predictable psychological response to appeasement, solicitation, and compassionate understanding. It's simple really.
Bullies will always push the envelope of bad behavior when they think they can get away with it. They think they can get away with it when Obama is the leader-from-behind of the Free World.
And they are getting away with it, aren't they? Remember the sense of relief and jubilation with which the recent NIE was received by almost everyone. Whew! We don't have to worry about Iran any more! Isn't that great? Except, we now know it was a lie.
Just as the latest manipulation 2 weeks before the election is a lie. Don't you wonder exactly who the liars are?
The whole October Surprise is designed to bring a transient sense of safety and security that is only possible with psychological denial. Osama bin Laden is dead and Al Qaeda is on the run! (escept they're not as 9/11/12 proves). Iran wants to negotiate! (except they really don't and have shown no motivation to actually negotiate ANY of the times they have agreed to sit down and talk).
No rational person wants to believe that Iran could be so crazy and suicidal that they would really try to "wipe Israel off the map." The 2006 NIE was tremendously reassuring because it suggested that the religious fanatics of Iran are really motivated by rational considerations, just like us! They abandoned the quest for nuclear weapons in 2003! They want peace, after all!
They clearly don't want something to happen that would interrupt or put a premature end to achieving their ultimate goal. And logically, rationally, they will do whatever they need to make sure of that. It's their ultimate goal that's the problem.
Don't forget that reason and logic can--and frequently are--used to promote the most illogical, irrational and insane of objectives. In the end, reason and logic are only intellectual tools and their usefulness depends entirely on the reality and truth of the premises for which they are being used. If the premises or objectives for which they are being used are bogus; or if they are not what you think they are; or the opposite of what your own would be under the circumstances; then it hardly matters that the Mullahs and Ahmadinejad give the appearance of being reasonable fellows negotiating rationally with the West.
I can easily imagine Ahmadinejad rubbing his hands together like The Simpson's Mr. Burns, cackling, "Exxxxcellent!" as they promise one thing even as they do the opposite--which logically and rationally proves to them the superiority of Islam and the inevitability of Allah's will.
It's no use saying that by pursuing the development of a nuclear warhead they would use against Israel doesn't make any sense and would be completely irrational, not to mention downright suicidal.
They have repeatedly stated they think it would be worth the human price.
Just think of Ahmadinejad as the ultimate, high-tech suicide bomber who has wrapped that nuclear bomb belt securely around his entire country.
I have said before that I hope I am wrong in this assessment, but all my psychiatric instincts continue to tell me that this is a situation where we are facing imminent suicidal and homicidal behavior. And, the lives of millions are in the balance....
UPDATE: And then there's this: Iranian media say that Romney will steal the election and that riots are expected....
And this, from the UN (guess who they want to win?):
The United Nations Special Rapporteur on Counter-Terrorism and Human Rights has warned Americans not to elect Republican Mitt Romney in next month’s presidential election, saying that doing so would be “a democratic mandate for torture.”
I can't think of a worse torture than to have to live under Obamanomics and Obama foreign policy for another 4 years.