As Corner readers know, I was told many months ago that Osama died in Iran last December, and is buried there, under a marker carrying a woman's name. In early January, Pakistan's President P. Musharaff announced bin Laden had died of kidney failure, which I took as pretty good confirmation. Meanwhile, there has been no bin Laden video for two years, only audios with a voice that might be his son's. Now French intelligence, which is a serious organization, has leaked a document citing Saudi sources (often not serious at all) saying Osama died recently in Pakistan of Typhoid fever.
I think the circumstantial evidence of his death has been pretty good, especially the behavior of Zawahiri, who sure acts like a number 1, and secondarily the non-appearance of Osama for such a long time. It wouldn't be hard to conjure up explanations for all this, including a desire to convince us he was dead when he isn't, but all in all the most reasonable conclusion is that he's dead.
The misnamed Intelligence Community doesn't believe it, by the way. They think he's alive in Waziristan. And they're quite insistent about that.
Perhaps another reason to think he's dead, eh what?
Ledeen's got quite a bit of credibility with me.